Tesla’s Robot Axion: Why Self-Driving Autonomous Cars are Boundary Problems for an Eccentric Billionaire
The problem is that while Tesla’s software can drive a vehicle without human help much of the time, it’s not yet reliable enough to drive unassisted all of the time.
An eccentric billionaire is going to unveil a futuristic technology that he predicts will transform the world with a robot by his side.
Tesla makes money selling electric vehicles — in fact, its profit margins on its cars, which are consistently in the double digits, are enviable for an automaker. The software industry has margins that are much larger than Musk would like.
Musk has always believed that the demand for the software will go up when it is fully self-sufficient, which would allow people to make money off of their personal vehicles by lending them out.
“The value of a fully electric autonomous fleet is generally gigantic — boggles the mind, really.” he told investors in 2021. It is one of the most valuable things that has ever been done in the history of civilization.
Still, Gianarikas notes that while there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about a Tesla robotaxi fleet, Elon Musk has a track record of eventually proving skeptics wrong.
While Cruise put human safety drivers in the back of their taxis after a crash last year, other companies have already begun to send self-driving cars onto the streets. The systems often have someone on call to assist remotely if a car gets stuck. That is not a need for constant supervision, as according to data it gave the state of California, it drove over 1 million autonomously miles last year with only 14 disengages or times the software required manual control.
The companies that have robotaxis aren’t profitable yet. According to research by J.D. Power, people who have ridden in robotaxis don’t find taxis practical because they don’t like the experience. The service will remain a novelty until they are cheaper and cover more ground.
Musk decided to build a system based only on relatively cheap cameras, with no other inputs; other companies also use radar and other pricey high-tech sensors. Musk also has embraced “end-to-end learning,” where the artificial intelligence “learns” how to drive from raw data; other companies add human-designed rules and guardrails to their AI systems.
Other companies say this approach is not just wrong but dangerous. Aurora took the unusual step of preemptively emailing reporters ahead of Tesla’s event this week to share bullet points about exactly what they object to. It’s worried about making sure a system is learning good driving behaviors, such as running stop signs, and that there are systems of checks and balances.
Anderson used to work at Tesla, where he helped launch Tesla’s Autopilot software, its first partial-automation system, the Aurora email notes. Waymo just snagged a former Tesla exec for its team, too.
Regulatory and Regulator Concerns about Self-Driving Taxis and Other Robotic Vehicles: A Conversation with Gianarikas
The United States has no federal laws prohibiting self- driving, so a patchwork of state and city regulators decide what companies can and cannot do.
Musk acknowledges that achieving full self-driving is more than just an idea, it is important that regulators are convinced that the fleet is safe.
That has implications for the physical design of vehicles. Cruise scrapped their plans for a robotic taxi vehicle with no steering wheel due to the risk of getting caught up in the regulatory process.
And governmental concerns could also affect software. Gianarikas says regulators who dig into the coding of a system built by “end-to-end” deep learning might not like what they find.
“You can imagine a scenario where [regulators] just kind of have this moment, like ‘What? You do not have any hard-coded software rules? he says. “‘How do you control it?’”
Source: Tesla is expected to unveil a robotaxi tonight: 5 things to know
We, Robot, a Humanoid Robot that can do anything you want it to do (and hopefully be much better than Tesla), says Dan Ives
The name We, Robot is a reference to a short story collection about the ethical and psychological implications of building increasingly human-like robots. It’s also the title of a very vaguely related Will Smith action movie.
“I think the long-term value of Optimus will exceed that of everything else at Tesla combined,” Musk told investors this summer. A humanoid robot that can do anything you want it to. I think the world is going to want one.
Dan Ives, an analyst and a long-time Tesla bull, will be in attendance on Thursday night. He is more interested in whether Musk can demonstrate a self-sufficient vehicle that works than he is in any of his other interests.
